AI Expected to Contribute 20% of India’s IT and Tech Revenues by 2030

New Delhi: Artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to become the strongest growth catalyst for India’s IT services and software export sector, with AI-led projects expected to generate as much as 20 per cent of industry revenue by 2030, according to a report released on Thursday.

The report by investment bank Equirus Capital noted that AI is reshaping delivery models and increasing productivity across Indian technology companies by 45–50 per cent.

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Sandeep Gogia, Managing Director and Sector Lead – Tech and Digital at Equirus Capital, said the rise of AI is prompting a shift from traditional Time and Material (T&M) pricing to outcome-based pricing (OBP). He added that AI tools, especially Agentic AI, are increasingly performing activities such as testing, coding and maintenance, resulting in substantial efficiency gains.

This surge in productivity is pushing Indian IT firms to deepen their AI capabilities across delivery functions, platform development and talent upskilling.

The report identifies three clusters expected to drive the next phase of mergers and acquisitions: AI-enabled delivery, AI-driven platforms and AI-specific skill development. Tech service providers are likely to acquire companies that offer proprietary intellectual property, automation frameworks or AI-first delivery systems. Enterprise software platforms that integrate AI into their architecture early are set to witness accelerated revenue growth and strong investor interest.

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Equirus Capital also forecasts that Global Capability Centres (GCCs) will exceed $100 billion by FY2030, as firms increasingly shift high-value work from outsourced operations to in-house centres. This trend is being supported by favourable policies, expansion into tier-2 and tier-3 cities and India’s expanding talent base.

The report further states that AI adoption is enhancing unit economics across industries, with leading firms in India seeing operating margin improvements of 200–400 basis points due to AI-driven automation. Profitable digital companies are already experiencing a 15–20 per cent valuation re-rating in CY25.